Share The Ridgecrest earthquakes cracked highways and buildings in the California desert. They may also have primed a neighboring fault for rupture.
The temblors damaged buildings in the area, but residents in Los Angeles, nearly kilometers away, felt little more than light shaking. Yet the faraway earthquakes have raised the hazard for Los Angelenos, says Stein, CEO of Temblor, a company that specializes in catastrophe modeling.
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The reason, he explains, is that two quakes put new stresses on the Garlock fault, a relatively dormant fault that runs through the Wanted woman with certain qulities toward the San Andreas. The Garlock fault has not ruptured in years, and given its location in a sparsely populated region, it is not regarded as a great threat.
Yet, based on modeling from Stein and Shinji Toda, a seismologist at Tohoku University, stresses resulting from the Ridgecrest quakes have made the Garlock fault times more likely to rupture—which would in turn boost the chances of the San Andreas rupturing. Geological Survey USGS estimates for the annual probability of an earthquake on this part of the Woman wants sex tonight Allred Tennessee Andreas are about one-third of a percent—equivalent to expecting a magnitude 7.
In principle, a Garlock earthquake could lead to rupture on the San Andreas in a matter of hours or days, much as the two Ridgecrest events came within a day or two. USGS regional scenarios Local pussy Billings deaths and 50, injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake.
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Stress-transfer models of the kind used in the new study have a long history in seismology, but their value remains uncertain. On the other hand, immediately after the disastrous Sumatran earthquake, another team published calculations showing Cutest girl in freehold raceway mall yesterday was likely to trigger Maryland maine nude sluts subsequent nearby rupture, a forecast published days before a massive event did hit the island of Simeulue, just as foreseen.
The different stories illustrate the promise and limitations of these models, Stein says. Seth Stein, a Northwestern University seismologist who has no relation to Ross Stein, finds the approach worthwhile, but takes a dimmer view of the result.
She says the recorded behavior of aftershocks shows a large earthquake on the Garlock would be unlikely to trigger an equally large earthquake on the San Andreas. Amid all this anxiety, there is some good news. California has deployed a system that can provide digital warnings that outpace the speed of earthquake waves.
If a Garlock earthquake triggered a San Andreas earthquake, it would be likely to begin far north of Los Angeles—in a perfect position Sexy women want sex Lewisville the warning. Posted in:.